Oil Prices Could Surge Past $100 Amid Iran War Supply Shock- Global oil markets are facing mounting pressure as the conflict involving Iran threatens one of the world’s most critical energy routes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned that oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel within days, and potentially reach $150 per barrel by the end of the month if disruptions in the Middle East continue.
The warning comes as crude shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz drop far more sharply than expected following the recent U.S.–Israeli military strikes on Iran.
Key Oil Route Severely Disrupted
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy corridors in the world. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass through the narrow waterway connecting major Gulf producers to international markets.
However, shipping traffic through the strait has plunged after Iran’s military forces issued warnings to tankers attempting to pass through the area. Reports suggest that Iranian Revolutionary Guard units threatened to attack vessels using the route, prompting hundreds of tankers to halt or reroute their journeys.
Earlier forecasts had predicted that oil flows through the strait might fall to about 15% of normal levels during the crisis. But recent data indicates the situation is even worse, with only around 10% of usual shipments currently managing to pass through.
Risk of Global Supply Shortage
The sudden disruption has sparked fears of a significant oil supply shortage across global markets. If shipments remain restricted, analysts believe the world could face a deficit of up to 20 million barrels per day—a shortfall that would be extremely difficult to replace quickly.
Major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz to export crude to global customers. With tanker traffic stalled, oil storage facilities across the region are rapidly filling up.
If exports cannot resume soon, some oilfields may have to temporarily shut down production because there will be no available storage capacity for additional crude.
Energy Markets Already Reacting
Oil prices have already surged in response to the crisis. Prices have jumped more than 50% since the beginning of 2026, when crude traded at roughly $60 per barrel.
By late last week, prices had climbed above $90 per barrel, marking the biggest weekly increase since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. A single trading session saw oil rise by around $10, highlighting the growing anxiety in energy markets.
Weekend trading activity suggested further gains ahead. On brokerage platforms, U.S. crude was already trading above $94 per barrel, signaling that prices could climb even higher when global financial markets reopen.
Gulf Producers Face Mounting Pressure
Energy officials across the Gulf have warned that the conflict could force producers to halt output if the disruption continues.
The energy minister of Qatar recently cautioned that if the war drags on, major Gulf exporters might have to shut down production within weeks. Such a scenario would remove millions of barrels of oil from global supply and intensify pressure on already strained markets.
Shipping companies and insurers are also becoming increasingly reluctant to send vessels into the region. Industry analysts say exports will not fully resume until tanker operators feel confident that ships are safe from threats such as naval attacks, drones, missiles, or sea mines.
Possible U.S. Countermeasures
The White House has reportedly considered several emergency measures to stabilize global oil supplies. These options include rerouting Saudi crude exports through the Red Sea, releasing oil from U.S. strategic reserves, and providing government-backed insurance for shipping companies operating in the region.
However, experts caution that such steps may only partially offset the disruption caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Replacing a supply loss of tens of millions of barrels per day would be extremely difficult in the short term.
Comparisons to Past Oil Shocks
According to analysts, the scale of the current disruption could be even greater than previous energy shocks. Some estimates suggest the impact on global oil flows may already exceed the production losses seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Historically, oil price spikes have had serious economic consequences. In 2008, crude prices surged to around $145 per barrel, contributing to a severe global economic slowdown. A similar spike occurred in 2022, when oil briefly exceeded $120 per barrel amid supply disruptions linked to the Ukraine war.
Global Economic Risks
If oil prices continue climbing toward $150 per barrel, economists warn that the surge could trigger a new wave of inflation worldwide. Higher energy costs would increase transportation and manufacturing expenses, eventually pushing up consumer prices across many sectors.
Such an inflation shock could slow economic growth and complicate recovery efforts in many countries already facing fragile economic conditions.
For now, the outlook for oil markets remains uncertain. Much will depend on whether tensions in the Middle East ease and whether shipping can safely resume through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. If not, analysts say the world could soon face one of the most dramatic oil price surges in recent history.
