Oil Supply in Danger: The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime artery for global energy trade, has once again become a focal point of rising geopolitical tensions. In response to escalating Israeli strikes and U.S. support, Iran’s parliament has endorsed the possibility of closing or restricting access to this critical waterway. Lawmakers assert that such measures would only be activated if Tehran’s national interests were directly threatened—particularly by Western military actions.
Why the Strait Is a Global Pressure Point
This narrow corridor, located between Iran and Oman, channels roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply, which equals around 18 to 20 million barrels of oil per day. It also handles a major share of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Any disruption to shipping here would likely spark immediate turbulence in global oil and energy markets.
Iran holds significant leverage because of its proximity to the Strait. Its military, including fast-attack craft, submarines, and anti-ship missiles, can threaten maritime traffic. However, any attempt to shut down the Strait would likely invite a swift military response from the United States and its Gulf allies, making a full closure risky for Iran itself.
Historical Flashpoints in the Strait
While the Strait has never been entirely closed, it has seen multiple disruptions over the decades:
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During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, both nations targeted oil tankers, escalating shipping risks and causing global concern.
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In 1988, after U.S. naval forces were attacked by Iranian mines, the U.S. retaliated in what became known as Operation Praying Mantis.
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Between 2011 and 2012, Iranian officials repeatedly threatened to close the Strait in response to Western sanctions on its nuclear program, causing spikes in oil prices.
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In 2019, Iran’s seizure of a British-flagged tanker highlighted how tensions over sanctions and regional politics could endanger shipping.
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Recent years have seen intermittent detentions of vessels by Iran’s navy, but full closure has always been avoided due to its severe economic implications.
These episodes show that while the threat of closure is a common Iranian tactic, full-scale disruption has remained a last resort.
Iran’s Role in Global Oil
Iran possesses roughly 9 percent of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, placing it among the top five globally. However, its export capacity has been heavily curtailed by international sanctions. While Iran’s oil exports to nations like China continue, its ability to use oil sales as economic leverage is weakened.
A full closure of the Strait would also damage Iran’s own economy, which is already heavily dependent on oil revenue. Thus, the threat appears aimed more at gaining political leverage than initiating direct economic warfare.
Alternatives to Strait Transit
Though Hormuz is vital, there are partial alternatives:
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Countries like the United States, China, and India maintain Strategic Petroleum Reserves to handle temporary disruptions.
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Pipelines such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline can divert some of the region’s exports away from the Strait.
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Global efforts to diversify energy sources, such as renewables and electric vehicles, are gradually reducing dependence on oil—but these shifts are far from immediate solutions.
Russia and China’s Roles
Russia, already entangled in its conflict with Ukraine, stands to benefit from disruptions in Hormuz by capitalizing on higher global oil prices. Moscow has also deepened military and strategic ties with Iran, conducting joint drills and sharing defense technologies.
China, as Iran’s largest oil buyer, is playing a more cautious role. While it opposes Western military intervention in the region, Beijing’s primary concern is the security of its energy imports and trade routes. China is urging all sides to de-escalate tensions to protect its economic interests.
Broader Stakes and Outlook
The United States and allied navies maintain a constant security presence in and around the Strait, prepared to intervene should Iran attempt significant interference. Although Iran’s threats are serious, a complete closure would likely trigger a coordinated global response.
In summary, Iran’s rhetoric around closing the Strait of Hormuz is part of a broader strategy of geopolitical posturing. While unlikely to translate into full-scale action, the risk of temporary disruptions remains real, underlining the fragility of global energy security in a tense and multipolar world.
