Who Supports Whom? Breaking Down Alliances in the Gulf Conflict- When people hear “Gulf conflict,” it can sound like a single, clearly defined war. In reality, the Gulf region has seen overlapping rivalries, shifting alliances, and strategic partnerships that have evolved over decades. From the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s to the 1990–91 Gulf War and today’s tensions involving Iran, Gulf Arab states, and global powers, the story is less about simple good-versus-bad narratives and more about interests, security fears, and regional influence.
So who supports whom — and why? Let’s break it down in a way that makes sense.
The Big Picture: Two Main Poles of Power
At the heart of Gulf geopolitics today are two broad centers of influence:
- The Islamic Republic of Iran
- The Arab Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
While this isn’t a formal “two-team” system, many regional alignments orbit around this rivalry.
Iran’s Position
Iran sees itself as a major regional power with historic, cultural, and religious influence. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran has pursued a strategy of expanding its regional reach through alliances with governments and non-state actors.
Iran’s closest regional partnerships include:
- The government of Syria
- Armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Political and militia factions in Iraq
- The Houthi movement in Yemen
From Iran’s perspective, these relationships create a “forward defense” strategy. Instead of confronting adversaries at its own borders, Iran projects influence outward.
The Gulf Arab Bloc
On the other side are the Sunni-majority monarchies of the Gulf. The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar.
Historically, these states have aligned closely with the United States for security protection, especially after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
While they don’t always agree among themselves — as seen during the 2017–2021 Qatar diplomatic crisis — they broadly share concerns about Iran’s regional ambitions.
The United States: Security Guarantor
No discussion of Gulf alliances is complete without mentioning the United States.
Since the 1980s, Washington has maintained a heavy military presence in the region. During the 1990–91 Gulf War, the US led a coalition to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait under President George H. W. Bush. That war cemented long-term defense ties between the US and Gulf monarchies.
Today:
- The US has bases in several GCC countries.
- It provides advanced weapons systems to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- It maintains naval forces in the Gulf to secure shipping lanes.
However, US policy toward Iran has shifted depending on the administration. Under President Barack Obama, Washington negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Under President Donald Trump, the US withdrew from the deal and imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions.
These swings have sometimes unsettled Gulf allies, who rely heavily on consistent US backing.
Israel Enters the Equation
Another important shift in recent years has been the growing alignment between some Gulf states and Israel.
For decades, most Arab states publicly distanced themselves from Israel. But shared concerns about Iran have changed the picture.
In 2020, the UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. This created a quiet but significant security alignment. Intelligence sharing, defense cooperation, and economic ties have deepened.
From Israel’s perspective, Iran is its primary regional threat. From the UAE and Bahrain’s perspective, Israel is a technologically advanced partner with strong security capabilities. The partnership is strategic rather than ideological.
Russia and China: Expanding Influence
While the United States remains the dominant external power in the Gulf, other global players are increasingly active.
Russia
Russia has strengthened ties with Iran, particularly in Syria, where both countries backed President Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war. Russia has also coordinated with Saudi Arabia on oil production through OPEC+ agreements.
This dual-track diplomacy allows Moscow to maintain relationships with rivals simultaneously.
China
China has become the largest buyer of Gulf oil. Unlike the US, Beijing avoids deep military entanglements and focuses on trade and infrastructure.
In 2023, China brokered a surprise diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia — a sign of its growing political clout.
China’s strategy is pragmatic: maintain good relations with everyone and ensure stable energy supplies.
Iraq: From Aggressor to Battleground of Influence
During the 1990 invasion of Kuwait under Saddam Hussein, Iraq was the central antagonist in the Gulf War.
Today, Iraq plays a different role. After the 2003 US-led invasion toppled Saddam, Iraq’s political system shifted dramatically. Iran gained significant influence through political parties and militias, while the US maintained military and diplomatic involvement.
Modern Iraq balances between Washington and Tehran. It does not want to be forced to choose sides, but it often becomes an arena where US–Iran tensions play out.
Yemen: A Proxy Battlefield
The conflict in Yemen is often described as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
- The Houthi movement, which controls much of northern Yemen, is aligned with Iran.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE have backed the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
For Saudi Arabia, the conflict is about border security and preventing Iranian-aligned forces from gaining a foothold. For Iran, supporting the Houthis provides leverage against Riyadh.
The war has had devastating humanitarian consequences, highlighting how regional rivalries affect ordinary people far from the diplomatic headlines.
Qatar and Oman: The Balancers
Not all Gulf states fall neatly into one camp.
Qatar
Qatar hosts a major US air base but has also maintained working relations with Iran. During the 2017–2021 blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others, Iran helped Qatar maintain trade routes.
Qatar’s strategy is hedging: diversify alliances to avoid dependence on any single power.
Oman
Oman has long played mediator. It facilitated secret US–Iran talks that led to the 2015 nuclear agreement. Muscat maintains cordial relations with both Tehran and Riyadh.
For smaller states, diplomacy is survival.
What Really Drives These Alliances?
If you look past the headlines, three core interests shape Gulf alliances:
1. Security
The Gulf is home to vital shipping lanes and massive energy reserves. States seek powerful allies to protect them from external threats.
2. Regime Stability
Many Gulf monarchies prioritize internal stability. They align with partners who support their political systems and help counter perceived destabilizing influences.
3. Economic Interests
Oil, gas, trade routes, and investment opportunities shape foreign policy. Countries like China engage heavily because of energy needs, not ideology.
Are Alliances Permanent?
One of the most fascinating aspects of Gulf politics is how fluid alliances can be.
Iran and Saudi Arabia were fierce rivals — yet resumed diplomatic relations in 2023. The UAE engages economically with Iran despite strategic concerns. The US remains a security partner, but Gulf states are diversifying ties toward Asia.
In short, alliances in the Gulf are rarely permanent. They are tools, not friendships.
The Takeaway
So who supports whom in the Gulf conflict?
- Iran backs regional partners and non-state actors to expand influence.
- Saudi Arabia and several GCC states align closely with the United States and, increasingly, Israel.
- Russia and China engage pragmatically with multiple sides.
- Smaller Gulf states hedge and mediate.
But the real story isn’t about rigid blocs. It’s about overlapping interests in a region that sits at the crossroads of global energy, religion, and geopolitics.
Understanding the Gulf means accepting that today’s rival could be tomorrow’s negotiating partner. In this region, strategy is rarely static — and that’s what makes it endlessly complex and fascinating.
