Why Is Everyone Talking About the Shimla Agreement Again? In a major escalation, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, signaling the potential unraveling of the landmark Shimla Agreement. This dramatic move comes after a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, fueling concerns that decades of fragile peace may be on the brink of collapse.
On April 23, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, a scenic town in Indian-administered Kashmir, killed 26 people—including 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese visitor. The attack, allegedly backed by groups operating from Pakistan, has prompted India to take a step that many had long feared: the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a key component of bilateral relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, governs the use of the waters of the Indus River basin, dividing the rivers between India and Pakistan. The agreement has been considered a rare success in India-Pakistan relations, as it has survived multiple wars, conflicts, and tensions. But in the wake of the Pahalgam attack, India has decided to halt its commitment to the treaty, marking a dramatic shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
The Pahalgam Attack
On April 22, armed militants launched an attack in the tranquil town of Pahalgam, traditionally seen as a peaceful retreat in Kashmir. The assault targeted Indian tourists. Indian officials have immediately pointed fingers at Pakistan-based militant groups and demanded action. Pakistan has denied involvement, but the incident has exacerbated the longstanding distrust between the two countries.
In response, India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement declaring that, in light of the continuing violence, the Indus Waters Treaty would be suspended with immediate effect. India justified the suspension as a necessary measure to protect national security and to hold Pakistan accountable for its role in fomenting cross-border terrorism.
The End of the Indus Waters Treaty?
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed by India and Pakistan in 1960, is widely regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. It allocates the waters of the Indus River and its tributaries to both countries, with Pakistan receiving rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) and India controlling the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). The treaty has largely withstood periods of war, tension, and instability between the two nations.
However, India’s suspension of the IWT represents a serious escalation that could undermine decades of diplomatic work. While the treaty itself is technically separate from the Shimla Agreement of 1972, the two have often been seen as interlinked—both were aimed at promoting peaceful cooperation in the face of otherwise fraught relations.
The suspension of the IWT marks a turning point that threatens to unravel the framework of bilateral diplomacy that India and Pakistan have depended on since the signing of Shimla. India’s aggressive stance has raised the prospect of water wars, a scenario that could destabilize not only the two countries but the entire South Asian region.
The Shimla Agreement and Its Fragile Legacy
The Shimla Agreement, signed between Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistani President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1972, was hailed as a step toward peaceful resolution after the war of 1971, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. The agreement laid out several principles for bilateral peace, the most important being the peaceful resolution of disputes and a commitment to respect the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Shimla Agreement also made it clear that the two countries would resolve their differences without the involvement of third parties. Over the years, this principle of bilateralism has been a cornerstone of India’s diplomatic strategy with Pakistan. However, recent developments — especially the attack in Pahalgam and India’s subsequent suspension of the IWT — have brought the Shimla Agreement’s viability into question.
India’s argument is that Pakistan has repeatedly violated the terms of the Shimla Agreement by supporting cross-border terrorism. After years of tension marked by the Kargil War and Pulwama-Balakot strikes, India’s suspension of the IWT reflects a decisive move toward a security-first stance on Pakistan. — one that places national security at the forefront.
The Road Ahead: A New Era of Water Diplomacy?
With India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, the immediate question becomes: What happens next? The treaty is a critical component of Pakistan’s water security, especially given its reliance on the Indus River system for agriculture, power generation, and drinking water. Any disruption could have severe economic and humanitarian consequences in Pakistan.
The move by India also raises fears about water scarcity in a region already grappling with the effects of climate change, glacial melt, and population growth. If the waters of the Indus basin are effectively weaponized, it could lead to increased tensions in South Asia, especially considering that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.
While some analysts believe that this could force both countries to return to the negotiating table, others are less optimistic. The breakdown of the Indus Waters Treaty and the Shimla Agreement may signal a return to old, hostile patterns in the relationship, with devastating consequences for both countries and the broader region.
Is the Shimla Agreement Finally Dead?
As the situation continues to unfold, the question of whether the Shimla Agreement will survive looms large. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is the most significant sign yet that India is reconsidering its diplomatic commitments to Pakistan, especially when it comes to issues like Kashmir and water-sharing.
If India were to formally walk away from the Shimla Agreement, it could mark a turning point with lasting effects on South Asia’s fragile peace. The Shimla Agreement was a fragile hope for a lasting peace, and without it, the prospects of lasting bilateral negotiations between India and Pakistan appear even more uncertain.
In the end, the suspension of the IWT may be a moment of reckoning, not just for the two countries, but for the entire region. The actions taken over the next few months could determine whether the Shimla Agreement survives another half-century or whether South Asia enters an era of greater uncertainty and conflict.
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